Daily Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The average number of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh administrative data. However, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide data could fail to signal better national security.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had over these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the lowest number of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly military operations to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety analysts cautioned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is notably true considering the uptick in different crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the desire to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it may mask days when there were especially elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the nation to show their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.